Weekly Market Update, November 28, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS After the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s fourth consecutive rate increase of 75 basis points (bps), the recently released minutes from the early-November meeting indicate that most Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could support dropping to a smaller rate hike when they reconvene in December. “A substantial majority of participants judged that a […]
Weekly Market Update, November 14, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surprised markets last week with headline—which rose 0.4 percent month-over-month against an expected 0.6 percent gain—and core—which rose 0.3 percent month-over-month (excluding food and energy) against an expected 0.5 percent gain—numbers. These results were driven by a decline in prices for used vehicles, commodities, and medical care. […]
Weekly Market Update, November 7, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last Wednesday brought the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s latest rate decision where it hiked the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) for the fourth consecutive time. This brought the upper target of the central bank’s rate up to 4 percent for the first time since January of 2008 during the […]
Weekly Market Update, October 31, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) heading into its November meeting this week, consensus expectations point to a likely rate hike of 75 basis points (bps). As rates continue rising, we’re starting to see more market participants voice their concern that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be going too far and/or […]
Weekly Market Update, October 24, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS With the labor market remaining tight and inflation proving stickier than expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) heads toward its final two meetings this year with expectations for additional rate hikes of 75 basis points (bps). A December hike of 50 bps is also being discussed among market participants as a […]
Weekly Market Update, October 17, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The front end of the yield curve continued its rise last week, lifted by hotter-than-expected inflationary data. The inversion between the 2- and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields expanded to 50 basis points (bps) and the spread picked up another 8 bps between the two yields. The inversion reflects the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s […]
Weekly Market Update, October 10, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The September employment report showed 263,000 jobs added during the month, which helped drive the unemployment rate down to 3.5 percent. This development further supports the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s trend of outsized interest rate hikes, as a higher unemployment rate is likely required to see meaningful cooling of inflation. As we approach […]
Weekly Market Update, October 3, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The economy continues to show signs of strength—consumer confidence, new home sales, and personal spending all surprised to the upside last week—while the Federal Reserve (Fed) actively tries to cool inflation. This Friday’s release of September employment data will be another important piece of that puzzle for the Fed leading up to […]
Weekly Market Update, September 26, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision from the September 21–22 meeting was announced. The committee hiked the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps), bringing the upper limit of the target federal funds rate to 3.25 percent, which hasn’t been breached since early 2008. This is the […]
Weekly Market Update, September 19, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last week came with the release of hotter-than-expected August inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw an increase of 0.1 percent against expectations for a decrease of that amount. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.6 percent against expectations for 0.3 percent. We await the Federal […]
Weekly Market Update, September 12, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enters its quiet period leading up to the September 20–21 meeting, market participants are under the impression that the most likely outcome will be a 75 basis point (bp) hike in the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell seemed to support that […]
Weekly Market Update, September 6, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Following hawkish messaging from the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s economic symposium at the end of August, market participants look toward the next rate decision set to take place on September 21. Current conditions point to a fairly even split between expectations for an increase of 50 and 75 basis points (bps). Recent employment […]
Weekly Market Update, August 29, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Although August is an off month for Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell still had an opportunity to provide forward guidance and steer the markets through his much-anticipated appearance at the annual Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY last week. Powell took a strongly hawkish tone; […]
Weekly Market Update, August 22, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Without a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in August, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely rely on this week’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, as an opportunity to bolster its message and reiterate a hawkish stance in an attempt to further tighten economic conditions. Regarding the next rate decision […]
Weekly Market Update, August 15, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last week’s inflation reports showed encouraging signs of softening, but the Federal Reserve (Fed) is still far from out of the woods and is looking for much stronger signs of moderation. For July, the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell 0.5 percent (against market estimates of a 0.2 percent increase) and the Consumer […]
Weekly Market Update, August 8, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS After the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s second consecutive 75 basis point (bp) rate hike on July 27, all eyes now look toward the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. With inflation remaining near 40-year highs, the markets and Fed officials are expecting continued rate hikes through year-end. St. Louis Fed President James […]
Weekly Market Update, August 1, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS The Federal Reserve (Fed) raised interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) at last week’s FOMC meeting, bringing its target range to 2.25 percent to 2.50 percent. Inflation remains stubbornly high and conversation among market participants is becoming increasingly focused on the timing—rather than the likelihood—of a potential recession. Some believe […]
Weekly Market Update, July 25, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS U.S. Treasury yields were down last week as expectations of a recession and a potential slowdown in rate increases from the Federal Reserve (Fed) were reflected in fixed income markets. Economic data releases suggested a slowing of the global economy. The housing sector showed signs of softening with the North American Homebuilders […]
Weekly Market Update, July 18, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Last Wednesday, U.S. inflation numbers for the month of June were released and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report exceeded expectations with an increase of 9.1 percent year-over-year. This upside surprise in prices is keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) on its toes in advance of its July 26–27 meeting; some market participants […]
Weekly Market Update, July 11, 2022
GENERAL MARKET NEWS Following last week’s release of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s June meeting minutes, all eyes now turn toward the July meeting. With core inflation remaining stubbornly higher than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would like, another large rate increase could be in the cards. Two Fed officials, Fed Governor Christopher Waller and […]
Weekly Market Update, June 27, 2022
After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate 75 basis points (bps) at its June meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell testified to Congress on the state and development of the U.S. economy. The conversation focused on what tradeoffs the Fed is willing to make and how it would plan […]